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Coffee and sugar prices to remain low: ABN AMRO


May 5, 2015
By Canadian Vending

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May 5, 2015, The Netherlands – Coffee and sugar prices will remain low,
says ABN AMRO, a retail and commercial bank active in private banking,
energy, commodities and transportation (ECT) and clearing.

May 5, 2015, The Netherlands – Coffee and sugar prices will remain low, says ABN AMRO, a retail and commercial bank active in private banking, energy, commodities and transportation (ECT) and clearing.

All soft commodities suffering from price volatility, the bank said on its website, but coffee and sugar prices are expected to remain low. Average prices for coffee, cocoa and sugar also trended downwards. Sugar was hardest hit, falling by 15 per cent, while coffee and cocoa prices declined by 11 and 6 per cent respectively.

ABN AMRO expects supply and demand factors to have a bigger impact on prices. Sugar production is expected to remain high. As for coffee and cocoa, the bank expects prices to bottom out, as production will be at best barely enough to meet demand. Global coffee production is currently 3.5 per cent lower than a year ago, though higher than projected early this year. Given anticipated coffee consumption of 149 million sacks, the bank foresees short supply, which means the prices are unlikely to fall any further. 

Cocoa production, meanwhile, is expected to seriously lag previous years, with Ghana lowering its production forecast by 20 per cent.

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In recent months, currency movements have been the main source of heavy pressure on prices of wheat, sugar and coffee, ABN AMRO believes. This has led the bank to downwardly adjust its price forecasts for these commodities. For cocoa, on the other hand, no major price shifts are expected. Cereal production is unlikely to reach new highs in the months ahead, but 2015-2016 harvests will still be at elevated levels. ABN AMRO therefore expects cereal prices to remain at their current lows for several months to come.